About Eurovision 2013 forecasting using NLP: the day after
Today, on the 18th of May, in Sweden, the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 will be held. I tried to make a forecasting of the winners, on the basis of Twitter messages, using natural language processing (NLP), a theory of association rules and semantic fields. I downloaded the tweets with the keywords (eurovision) just for one day - May 17. The analysis conducted shows that the winner is going to be a singer from Denmark, the next three places will go to Ukraine, Russia and Ireland. Well, we'll see :)
If my forecasting is correct, I will write the algorithms of my analysis in detail.
Today, on the 18th of May, in Sweden, the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 will be held. I tried to make a forecasting of the winners, on the basis of Twitter messages, using natural language processing (NLP), a theory of association rules and semantic fields. I downloaded the tweets with the keywords (eurovision) just for one day - May 17. The analysis conducted shows that the winner is going to be a singer from Denmark, the next three places will go to Ukraine, Russia and Ireland. Well, we'll see :)
If my forecasting is correct, I will write the algorithms of my analysis in detail.
Here are some of obtained association rules and their presentations :
lhs rhs support confidence lift
1 {denmark,
russia,
ukraine} => {win} 0.009779951 0.8 1.216357
2 {ireland,
russia,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
3 {denmark,
ireland,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
4 {denmark,
ireland,
russia} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
5 {denmark,
ireland,
russia,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
1 {denmark,
russia,
ukraine} => {win} 0.009779951 0.8 1.216357
2 {ireland,
russia,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
3 {denmark,
ireland,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
4 {denmark,
ireland,
russia} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
5 {denmark,
ireland,
russia,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0 2.655844
lhs rhs support confidence lift
1 {denmark,
favourites} => {win} 0.017114914 1.0000000 1.520446
2 {denmark,
ukraine} => {win} 0.012224939 0.8333333 1.267038
3 {russia,
ukraine} => {win} 0.009779951 0.8000000 1.216357
4 {denmark,
russia} => {win} 0.009779951 0.8000000 1.216357
5 {denmark,
russia,
ukraine} => {win} 0.009779951 0.8000000 1.216357
6 {holland,
netherlands} => {win} 0.004889976 1.0000000 1.520446
7 {denmark,
ireland} => {win} 0.004889976 0.6666667 1.013631
8 {lithuania,
moldova} => {win} 0.002444988 1.0000000 1.520446
9 {ireland,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0000000 2.655844
10 {ireland,
russia} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0000000 2.655844
11 {ireland,
russia,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0000000 2.655844
12 {denmark,
ireland,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0000000 2.655844
13 {denmark,
ireland,
russia} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0000000 2.655844
14 {denmark,
ireland,
russia,
ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988 1.0000000 2.655844
1 {netherlands} => {vote} 0.06060606 0.8 2.200000
2 {russia} => {love} 0.04545455 1.0 3.300000
3 {denmark} => {win} 0.04545455 0.5 1.375000
4 {moldova} => {votes} 0.03030303 1.0 16.500000
5 {irish} => {votes} 0.01515152 1.0 16.500000
6 {holland} => {netherlands} 0.01515152 1.0 13.200000
7 {holland} => {win} 0.01515152 1.0 2.750000
8 {belgium} => {love} 0.01515152 0.5 1.650000
9 {belgium} => {win} 0.01515152 0.5 1.375000
10 {holland,
netherlands} => {win} 0.01515152 1.0 2.750000
11 {denmark,
ukraine} => {favourite} 0.01515152 1.0 7.333333
2 {russia} => {love} 0.04545455 1.0 3.300000
3 {denmark} => {win} 0.04545455 0.5 1.375000
4 {moldova} => {votes} 0.03030303 1.0 16.500000
5 {irish} => {votes} 0.01515152 1.0 16.500000
6 {holland} => {netherlands} 0.01515152 1.0 13.200000
7 {holland} => {win} 0.01515152 1.0 2.750000
8 {belgium} => {love} 0.01515152 0.5 1.650000
9 {belgium} => {win} 0.01515152 0.5 1.375000
10 {holland,
netherlands} => {win} 0.01515152 1.0 2.750000
11 {denmark,
ukraine} => {favourite} 0.01515152 1.0 7.333333
lhs rhs support confidence lift
1 {denmark} => {win} 0.24 0.8571429 1.785714
2 {denmark} => {favourite} 0.16 0.5714286 2.857143
3 {belgium} => {win} 0.08 1.0000000 2.083333
4 {ireland} => {win} 0.08 0.5000000 1.041667
5 {ukraine} => {favourite} 0.04 1.0000000 5.000000
6 {serbia} => {fun} 0.04 1.0000000 25.000000
7 {pretty} => {russia} 0.04 1.0000000 8.333333
8 {pretty} => {denmark} 0.04 1.0000000 3.571429
9 {pretty,
russia} => {denmark} 0.04 1.0000000 3.571429
10 {denmark,
pretty} => {russia} 0.04 1.0000000 8.333333
11 {denmark,
russia} => {pretty} 0.04 1.0000000 25.000000
1 {denmark} => {win} 0.24 0.8571429 1.785714
2 {denmark} => {favourite} 0.16 0.5714286 2.857143
3 {belgium} => {win} 0.08 1.0000000 2.083333
4 {ireland} => {win} 0.08 0.5000000 1.041667
5 {ukraine} => {favourite} 0.04 1.0000000 5.000000
6 {serbia} => {fun} 0.04 1.0000000 25.000000
7 {pretty} => {russia} 0.04 1.0000000 8.333333
8 {pretty} => {denmark} 0.04 1.0000000 3.571429
9 {pretty,
russia} => {denmark} 0.04 1.0000000 3.571429
10 {denmark,
pretty} => {russia} 0.04 1.0000000 8.333333
11 {denmark,
russia} => {pretty} 0.04 1.0000000 25.000000
Ok, now that the results are available, I am looking forward to the algorithms! :D Great job! Congrats!
ОтветитьУдалитьAbout Eurovision 2013 forecasting using NLP: the day after
ОтветитьУдалитьhttp://bpavlyshenko.blogspot.com/2013/05/about-eurovision-2013-forecasting-using.html
I will be also looking forward to your algorithm. Keep posted. On linked in as well.
ОтветитьУдалитьWrite your algorithm now!
ОтветитьУдалитьI like to know your rules!