суббота, 18 мая 2013 г.

Eurovision 2013 forecasting using NLP and association rules

About Eurovision 2013 forecasting using NLP: the day after

Today, on the 18th of May, in Sweden, the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 will be held. I tried to make a forecasting of the winners, on the basis of Twitter messages, using natural language processing (NLP),  a theory of association rules and semantic fields.  I downloaded the tweets with the keywords (eurovision) just for one day - May 17. The analysis conducted shows that the winner is going to be a singer from Denmark, the next three places will go to Ukraine, Russia and Ireland. Well, we'll see :)
 If my forecasting is correct, I will write the algorithms of my analysis in detail.

Here are some of obtained association rules and their presentations :
lhs          rhs          support confidence     lift
1 {denmark,                                           
   russia,                                            
   ukraine} => {win}    0.009779951        0.8 1.216357
2 {ireland,                                           
   russia,                                            
   ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988        1.0 2.655844
3 {denmark,                                           
   ireland,                                           
   ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988        1.0 2.655844
4 {denmark,                                           
   ireland,                                           
   russia}  => {winner} 0.002444988        1.0 2.655844
5 {denmark,                                           
   ireland,                                           
   russia,                                            
   ukraine} => {winner} 0.002444988        1.0 2.655844

   lhs              rhs          support confidence     lift
1  {denmark,                                               
    favourites}  => {win}    0.017114914  1.0000000 1.520446
2  {denmark,                                               
    ukraine}     => {win}    0.012224939  0.8333333 1.267038
3  {russia,                                                
    ukraine}     => {win}    0.009779951  0.8000000 1.216357
4  {denmark,                                               
    russia}      => {win}    0.009779951  0.8000000 1.216357
5  {denmark,                                               
    russia,                                                
    ukraine}     => {win}    0.009779951  0.8000000 1.216357
6  {holland,                                               
    netherlands} => {win}    0.004889976  1.0000000 1.520446
7  {denmark,                                               
    ireland}     => {win}    0.004889976  0.6666667 1.013631
8  {lithuania,                                             
    moldova}     => {win}    0.002444988  1.0000000 1.520446
9  {ireland,                                               
    ukraine}     => {winner} 0.002444988  1.0000000 2.655844
10 {ireland,                                               
    russia}      => {winner} 0.002444988  1.0000000 2.655844
11 {ireland,                                               
    russia,                                                
    ukraine}     => {winner} 0.002444988  1.0000000 2.655844
12 {denmark,                                               
    ireland,                                               
    ukraine}     => {winner} 0.002444988  1.0000000 2.655844
13 {denmark,                                               
    ireland,                                               
    russia}      => {winner} 0.002444988  1.0000000 2.655844
14 {denmark,                                               
    ireland,                                               
    russia,                                                
    ukraine}     => {winner} 0.002444988  1.0000000 2.655844
1  {netherlands} => {vote}        0.06060606        0.8  2.200000
2  {russia}      => {love}        0.04545455        1.0  3.300000
3  {denmark}     => {win}         0.04545455        0.5  1.375000
4  {moldova}     => {votes}       0.03030303        1.0 16.500000
5  {irish}       => {votes}       0.01515152        1.0 16.500000
6  {holland}     => {netherlands} 0.01515152        1.0 13.200000
7  {holland}     => {win}         0.01515152        1.0  2.750000
8  {belgium}     => {love}        0.01515152        0.5  1.650000
9  {belgium}     => {win}         0.01515152        0.5  1.375000
10 {holland,                                                    
    netherlands} => {win}         0.01515152        1.0  2.750000
11 {denmark,                                                    
    ukraine}     => {favourite}   0.01515152        1.0  7.333333
lhs          rhs         support confidence      lift
1  {denmark} => {win}          0.24  0.8571429  1.785714
2  {denmark} => {favourite}    0.16  0.5714286  2.857143
3  {belgium} => {win}          0.08  1.0000000  2.083333
4  {ireland} => {win}          0.08  0.5000000  1.041667
5  {ukraine} => {favourite}    0.04  1.0000000  5.000000
6  {serbia}  => {fun}          0.04  1.0000000 25.000000
7  {pretty}  => {russia}       0.04  1.0000000  8.333333
8  {pretty}  => {denmark}      0.04  1.0000000  3.571429
9  {pretty,                                            
    russia}  => {denmark}      0.04  1.0000000  3.571429
10 {denmark,                                           
    pretty}  => {russia}       0.04  1.0000000  8.333333
11 {denmark,                                           
    russia}  => {pretty}       0.04  1.0000000 25.000000








4 комментария:

  1. Ok, now that the results are available, I am looking forward to the algorithms! :D Great job! Congrats!

    ОтветитьУдалить
  2. About Eurovision 2013 forecasting using NLP: the day after
    http://bpavlyshenko.blogspot.com/2013/05/about-eurovision-2013-forecasting-using.html

    ОтветитьУдалить
  3. I will be also looking forward to your algorithm. Keep posted. On linked in as well.

    ОтветитьУдалить
  4. Write your algorithm now!
    I like to know your rules!

    ОтветитьУдалить